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What Threat Does Turkish Chaos Pose to Armenia?

As the parliamentary elections in Turkey are drawing nearer, the wish of this country’s leadership to cause a panic in the country to cover up domestic and foreign political failures becomes obvious. Armenia is closely following the developments in Turkey where the level of democracy is retreating from the previous level. However, the ongoing developments are evidence that democracy in Turkey was not irreversible.
Attacks on the offices of the pro-Kurdish parties which have a lot of Armenian members have begun. In an interview with the Agos Newspaper Member of Parliament Garo Paylan, People’s Democratic Party, announced that the attacks on party offices are provocations leading to a coup. “During innumerable incidents policemen and agents of special services attack our offices under the name of nationalists,” Garo Paylan said.
Though the border is closed, there is communication between Armenia and Turkey. The territories lying beyond Ararat are still called West Armenia.
Besides, the Armenian economy is related to Turkey. There are a lot of Turkish products in our shops, and apparently changes in the lira rate affect the prices in Armenia as much as the rate of the ruble.
There are some other circumstances that make Armenia follow the dramatic developments in Turkey closely. The Kurdish movement in Turkey unfolds at a high rate, and the prospect of establishment of a Kurdish state are becoming more realistic. This is highly important to Armenia. This still hypothetical formation will include the historically Armenian territories.
Besides, the most painful processes in Turkey are going on at the border with Armenia and may pose a serious threat. Moreover, nobody knows what territories the Kurds want. For example, is Nakhijevan among these territories? The Turkish-Kurdish clashes at the border with Nakhijevan are the most intensive ones. In this conflict Azerbaijan which includes Nakhijevan supports the Turkish government.
However, hardly anyone will be able to predict how the population of Nakhijevan will behave if the events take another turn. All these scenarios may seem fantastic but the developments are very dynamic.


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