Crisis in Caucasus: An opportunity for Ankara-Yerevan ties?

As the possibility grows stronger that President Abdullah Gül will visit Armenia for a soccer match between the two countries’ national teams, the debates among businessmen and politicians over whether or not he should go have become more heated.

Diplomatic sources in Ankara have signaled that Gül may accept the invitation of his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sarksyan, to watch the World Cup qualifying match between the Turkish and Armenian teams in Yerevan on Saturday. Academics, businessmen and politicians are discussing the possible outcomes of this gesture.

Tuğrul Türkeş, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) deputy and the son of the late leader of the same party, Alparslan Türkeş, who initiated efforts to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia, said he is not opposed to the gesture as someone who has participated in developing relations between the two neighbors but that it is Armenia’s turn to make a gesture.

Turkey was among the first countries to recognize the independence of Armenia, but it closed its border and severed formal ties after Armenia occupied Nagorno-Karabakh. Normalization of ties depends on Armenian withdrawal from the Azerbaijani territory, Yerevan shelving support for Armenian diaspora efforts to win international recognition for Armenian genocide claims and formal recognition by Armenia of the current border with Turkey. “Since 1994, Turkey has made gestures of good will. But the reciprocal moves did not come. Every time there is a new administration in Armenia, Turkey repeats its gestures. I guess President Gül is thinking that going to the soccer game will be helpful for starting dialogue but it is not Turkey’s turn to make a gesture,” Türkeş said.

The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is against Gül visiting Yerevan. CHP leader Deniz Baykal on Sunday told reporters that the government is trying to reverse the official policy without Armenia meeting any of the conditions requested by Turkey for normalization of ties.

He also warned against alienating Azerbaijan, saying this country is of vital importance for Turkey in many respects. “I want the government to refrain from taking any step that would harm Azerbaijan,” he said, and added that he would rather go to Baku than to Yerevan to watch the World Cup game.

Azerbaijan, Turkey’s regional and ethnic ally, is likely to be offended by any rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia. But the recent crisis in the Caucasus may force a rethinking of regional balances. The Russian operation in Georgia raised questions about the security of regional transportation and energy transfer lines. With its Armenian border closed, Turkey relies on Georgia as an outlet to the Caucasus.

Associate Professor Mithat Çelikpala from the TOBB University international relations department, who visited Armenia recently, stated that even if Gül visits Yerevan for the soccer game, there is no reason to expect much from this trip, if it actually takes place. “It will be a goodwill gesture by Turkey and that’s it. It will not produce that much in the short run. But diplomatically it will be advantageous for Turkey. Other countries used to say that Turkey is a big country and so it should make such gestures,” he noted.

Çelikpala stated that the most likely beneficiary from Gül’s visit in the short term will be Sarksyan. “He is the person who headed the army during the Nagorno-Karabakh invasion. When he was elected almost a year ago there were protests against him in his country. But after a year he will be the one who was able to compel the Turkish president to visit Armenia,” Çelikpala stated, but also recalled that there have been secret talks between the two countries and that the content of these talks has not been made public.

“If there is a concrete outcome from these talks, Gül’s visit to Yerevan will perhaps gain more meaning,” Çelikpala said.

On the other hand, he recalled that due to the complicated situation in the Caucasus, one of the possibilities is a civil war in Georgia. “If this occurs then Turkey will not align with the east and Azerbaijan. It will have to sit down at the table with the Armenians,” Çelikpala noted. Recently a group of Turkish Armenian businessmen and intellectuals called on officials, in view of the war in Georgia, to open the railways and the borders with Armenia, releasing a declaration to this effect.

“The war in Georgia has left the countries of the south Caucasus struggling with substantial risks and challenges. As a consequence of the recent crisis, which further exacerbated an impasse created by the existence of the protracted conflicts, the region is deprived of a vital artery to transport goods through the countries of the region. This is our strongest concern,” the declaration notes.

“This crisis should make us assess the situation realistically and initiate a new age of cooperation. The governments in Ankara, Baku, Tbilisi and Yerevan have a unique chance to prove their credentials of being good neighbors willing to contribute positively to regional peace and stability. We request that they take collective action and immediately unblock railroad networks in the region,” the declaration states. The declaration was signed by people who have been engaging in diplomacy projects, including Tevan Poghosyan from the International Center for Human Development, Noyan Soyak and Aline Özinan from the Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council, Natela Sakhokia from the Strategic Research Center of Georgia and Professor Baskın Oran.

The businessmen, especially those dealing with border trade, are hoping that Gül will make the trip to Armenia. One of them is Necdet Aksoy from Van, who spoke to the Cihan news agency.

“We think that this soccer game is a great chance for both countries. President Gül should go there, and he should invite his counterpart here. Both leaders can contribute to opening up the border, which has been closed since 1994. If this border is opened, trade will improve and unemployment will decrease,” he told Cihan.
02 September 2008, Tuesday
AYŞE KARABAT  ANKARA
Today’s Zaman

02.09.2008