Pros and cons of a visit to Yerevan

It seems that the big question will remain to be answered to the very end. Will President Abdullah Gül say yes to the invitation to Yerevan by his counterpart in Armenia, Serzh Sarksyan?

The possible meeting to take place there represents a fascinating pretext. For the first time in their history, the national soccer teams of both countries are to meet in a match, on Sept. 6, which will help qualify for the World Cup 2010. Comparisons to the historic ping-pong diplomacy between the US and China in the ‘70s are enthusiastically drawn by the commentators.
True, a wonderful pretext, but it is an opportunity that also involves high risk. To accept would be as easy or as tough as to reject.

Gül is, my sources tell me, inclined to accept. A key defender of resolving the conflict between Ankara and Yerevan and establishing a new political climate to be dominated by normalized relations, he would certainly be fit to take this bull by the horns. The main question for Gül is not whether he would do it, but how. That part is a tricky one.

The easing of Armenian visa requirements for soccer fans from Turkey is a step to be commended, to be sure. After all, the embargo imposed by Turkey through closed land borders did not prevent Armenian workers from flying rather regularly to İstanbul and Armenian tourists to the beach resorts on the Turkish coast.

Turks have also supported the regular presence of Yerevan in the context of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, in İstanbul. On various levels, a dialogue has been established between NGOs, journalists and academics. The heinous murder of Hrant Dink clearly helped people sympathetic to rapprochement move more keenly ahead. So on the social and diplomatic level, things do not look that bad.

But they do in the Caucasus. The crisis in Georgia that erupted so unexpectedly might add to the matters to be considered if Gül is to accept Sarksyan’s invitation. The progress of Turco-Georgian relations has been taking place not exactly in line with Armenia’s national interests, and Gül’s visit might also be taken by Russia as a symbol of “taking sides” against Moscow, particularly if one also takes into consideration that due to the “squeeze” by the Turkish embargo and enforced, involuntary cooperation with Iran in the south, Armenia fell increasingly more under the influence of Russia in the past decade.

On the other hand, the crisis in Georgia and the Caucasus in general might create a challenge for Gül and Sarksyan in an exercise to discuss common interests and — who knows? — strategic openings for the future. As with Iraq, Turkey more or less looks like the only reasonable path to the West for Yerevan. In the long run, EU and NATO membership for Armenia will benefit — more than Armenia itself or Turkey — the entire Western community. It is all a matter of vision, and Gül made clear in a recent Guardian interview that the regional actors do need a new vision.

True, there are great obstacles before Armenian-Turkish normalization. What concerns Gül most of all are the issues “shelved”: the bleeding and explosive conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh (and the heavy Armenian and Azeri arms spending); the dispute over the tragic fate of hundreds of thousands of Ottoman Armenians between 1915-1918; and what Ankara sees as “Armenian denial of recognition of the border.” Nobody expects both statesmen to plunge into finding a solution on these issues, but it seems reasonable that views can be expressed as to clarify the intentions on Karabakh and opening the border. The soundest method would be not to talk at all, about history, for now.

Another point of concern on a possible visit to Yerevan is how to deal with the Azeris. As much as Gül is inclined to further talks with the Armenians, so is Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan keen on enhancing cooperation with Baku. It is no secret that these two have some differences of opinion as to how the triangle puzzle will be handled. The success of a visit to Yerevan will be therefore almost entirely dependent on whether Erdoğan in particular will be strong enough to persuade Baku that it is in the Azeris’ interest, as well; that a peaceful resolution be reached on Karabakh; and that whatever is in Turkey’s interest, must be simply be in Azerbaijan’s best interest as well.

In general, Gül’s visit will have many pros, rather than cons. But it must be made clear that he is truly welcomed and well-treated in Yerevan. There should be no room for any provocations at all. The match has the potential to turn the course of history. Sarksyan and Gül, if keen and well-supported by the West, can even stand as candidates for the Nobel Prize for peace.

Let us end with a question: If the EU is seen as truly interested in normalization between Turkey and Armenia, why shouldn’t Sarksyan also add Nicolas Sarkozy to his invitation list for the match?

The Caucasus needs such signals, as much as it enjoys 22 men running after a ball.

18.08.2008

Todays Zaman
19.08.2008