Turkey and Armenia: ‘Locked up but not a deadlock’

ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News
Friday, May 28, 2010

The rapprochement process between Turkey and Armenia should continue while disregarding the matters of Nagorno-Karabakh and the ‘genocide’ debate, according to a report prepared by institutions from both sides of the border. Freezing the signatures of the Zurich protocols is positive compared to revoking them, experts say.

The ratification process for normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia should continue despite arguments over Nagorno-Karabakh and “genocide” blocking its path, according to a new report from the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Institution, or TESEV.

Following the high expectations after the signing of historic protocols in Zurich last year, the halt of the process was discussed at a gathering in Istanbul on Friday organized by TESEV to present its report, “Assessing the Rapprochement Process” jointly prepared with the Caucasus Institute.

Aybars Görgülü, assistant program officer for TESEV and contributor to the report, said the process seems shelved at the moment since neither parliament approved the protocols.

“Turkey remains tied to the process of Nogorno-Karabakh, but the possibility of coming to a resolution [there] is low. An opinion frequently stated is that the status quo in Karabakh can only change with a new war. If we consider that would be a disaster for all the actors, then we can say the situation in Karabakh will continue as it has for the near future,” Görgülü said.

The process would be evaluated as an internal political issue as well and the sides not revoking their signatures but freezing the process is actually a positive thing, he said. “If Armenia passed it through its parliament, the AKP [Justice and Development Party] would be stuck in a hard position,” Görgülü said, arguing that there is a consensus between the two governments.

Alexendar Iskenderyan, director for CI and contributor to the report, said “I am not very optimistic. I do not think we can expect real changes in real time.” Iskenderyan said many people in both Turkey and Armenia perceive this as a failed project already, but he agreed that the idea of the signatures not being revoked is still a positive thing. “The process is locked up but not necessarily a deadlock,” he said.

Erdal Güven, columnist for the daily Radikal, said it is obvious the matters of Nagorno-Karabakh and the events of 1915 were not thought through while the protocols were prepared, and Turkey’s demand on “making progress in Karabakh” is a vague one. Güven said the sides tried to overcome the issues within a diplomatic sense of “constructive vagueness” by a commission, but he also believes this point was not discussed thoroughly either. “Leave the [Armenian] diaspora aside, it is not possible that Turkey would not know how Armenian society perceives the genocide. For both Armenian society and government, genocide is not an issue open for debate.”

Güven said it seems illogical to him that a blind eye was turned to this fact since the issue is completely different for Turkey. The “constructive vagueness” has turned into “destructive clearness” in time, he said.

Sabine Frezier from the International Crisis Group, advised Turkey to encourage Azerbaijan toward diplomacy and help break the isolation of the small group of Karabakh Armenians to play a more impartial and important role in the Caucasus.

Can Paker, president of TESEV, pointed to the importance of support from public opinion because it may encourage governments to solve problems through dialogue rather than disagreement. Paker also said he is not pessimistic about the whole process, for he believes “incredible changes have occurred in recent years” and the point of no return has been passed.

Hurriyet Daily News

28.05.2010