| Economists present their outlooks
What will be the positive and negative outcomes of opening the Armenian-Turkish border? For arguing this question the Union of Industrialists and Businessmen of Armenia (UIBA) organized a seminar September 17 together with the “Armenia: Finances and Economy” periodical.
Opening the discussion the chairman of the UIBA Arsen Ghazaryan presented the prehistory of the problem, going back ten years when Turkey blockaded Armenia’s railway connections and roads and coming as close to present day as the newly circulated ideas of possible opening of the border lines. He noted that during last decade there has surely been a shadow trade turnover amid the two countries, as well as some mediated deals between Armenian and Turkish businessmen. At present the entrepreneurs of the eastern region of Turkey apply to Turkish authorities bidding to open the borders with Armenia. Another reality, though, is that Armenia is a path for Turkey to access the markets of Azerbaijan and Central Asia. For Armenia, Turkey is a free way to Europe, having which we will not be fully dependent on Georgia. However, Turkish authorities do not risk in this issue so far.
The first reporter on the issue, economist Tatul Manaseryan said it is premature to open the border. He noted that this issue did not emerge by the initiative of Armenia, emphasizing that Turkey has much bigger interests in this question. The word is about the development of the eastern provinces of Turkey (Kars, Erzerum and Trapizund). For Armenia, with its amorphous economy, on the contrary, this step would be of great jeopardy.
The deputy director of Noyan Tapan news agency Harutyun Khachatryan said that the opening of the frontiers will surely be of Armenia’s benefit. First of all, the opening of Turkish-Armenian borders will be a straight moral blow to Azerbaijan. Also if frontiers open Armenia will become a transit country both for Turkey, Azerbaijan and Central Asia- with all the consecutive profits of the mentioned position.
The deputy head of the state property department Ashot Markosyan, speaking for having “green light” borders, referred to the weight of having developed trade relations with next-door countries. And the Yerevan representative of the World Bank Vigen Sargsyan said that there can be no other option but “yes” to the question. For backing his strong affirmative stand, he said that he had applied to local and foreign economists with a question “can you point one example of two neighbor countries developing when they blockade each other?” and received a negative answer.
Agriculture deputy minister Samvel Avetisyan, expressing a more far-reaching opinion, said that Turkey does not really need Armenia, for the latter is a considerably small market for Turkey’s large economy. Economist Ashot Eghiazaryan didn’t astonish the participants by saying that the opening of the frontiers is in fact conditioned by the will and interest of the USA. The latter links the solution of this question to regional security, its beloved strategic “excuse”. Turkey still opposes USA, showing that it doesn’t obey the States. And if the borders open, it is necessary to analyze not the profits and losses, but the real situation. In his estimation, the anticipated state of affairs will not be very advantageous for us.
According to 2001 statistics, Armenia exported products worth 1,1 million USD to Turkey, whilst the figure of the imported goods was 35 times larger.
Another economist Artsvi Minasyan warned that the borders will open regardless the okay of Armenians, demonstratively asking what the Armenian authorities currently do to be ready for such a development. She also stressed the necessity of deciding which branches of home industry are progressive and which are lagging before talking about unlocking the boundaries.
Summing up the seminar, Arsen Ghazaryuan supposed that the Turkish capital is hardly to damage our industry. He brought the example of neighboring Georgia, saying that the Russian investment there is much bigger than the Turkish one. The chairman of the UIBA also said that they organized a virtual agro-market workshop recently, where it became clear that Armenia has a possibility to even export some agricultural products to Turkey. What’s more, Armenia has big chances in energy, cement and textile sectors’ export. In food products Armenia will naturally give in, but it will be a good incentive for the Armenian food producers to be content with “only” profit, not “super” profit they get now. As a result of this, Armenian consumers will profit.
At the end Mr. Ghazaryan promised to continue similar debates, which will help the elaboration of a correct approach to the issue.
By Ara Martirosyan |
Akgün Medya