| REMARKS BY EDWARD P. DJEREJIAN
DIRECTOR OF THE JAMES A. BAKER III
INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY AT RICE UNIVERSITY
TO THE ARMENIAN REPORTER INTERNATIONAL
FORTIETH-ANNIVERSARY GALA
June 25,2005
Dear Friends,
It is indeed a pleasure to be here with you tonight to participate in the celebration of the Armenian Reporter’s Fortieth Anniversary and to honor the outstanding work of its Senior Editor, Ed Boghossian. The Armenian Reporter, under Ed Boghossian’s leadership, has long been an important independent voice of the Armenian community in America. The Armenian Reporter has shunned the strident partisanship that has, unfortunately, characterized far too much of the Armenian Diaspora’s history. The Reporter has been a strong advocate of democracy in Armenia and for Armenia’s regional integration and strong relations with the United States. It has informed the Armenian Diaspora on these critical issues and, in so doing, has played that central role of open discussion and debate that the free press should. So, I congratulate the Armenian Reporter and Ed Boghossian on these accomplishments and wish you the best success in the years ahead.
Allow me to take this opportunity to express some of my views on how I see the future of Armenia at this important crossroads in its history.
First, let us not forget that we are very fortunate indeed to see in our lifetime the emergence of Armenia as a free and independent state after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. And for me, as I am sure for all of us here tonight, Armenia’s independence and evolution as a democratic and prosperous state is a cherished goal.
When I was assigned to the United States Embassy in Moscow where I was the Political Counselor during President Jimmy Carter’s Administration, it was a very difficult period following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Toward the end of our tour of duty, my wife and I and our young son visited Soviet Armenia. The Armenian Communist Party leadership was a bit nervous about my visit, given the adversarial state of US-Soviet relations at that time. In stark contrast, our visit was warmly welcomed by the Armenian Church and we had a direct introduction to the role of the Armenian Church as the symbol of Armenian nationalism. After my rather fruitless and protocolaire meetings with government officials in Yerevan, I was met by a young, staunchly nationalist Armenian priest who escorted us on our first visit to Etchmiadzin. While the car was passing under the red Soviet propaganda banners displayed across the road, the young priest asked me if I could read Russian and I replied affirmatively- He then said, what does that banner say? 1 replied, “the unity of the people and the party”. The priest then turned his head toward me and said, “You are not a good Armenian.” Rather surprised, I asked why not. He replied that “a real Armenian would have read that banner to say “the unity of the people and the Church”. We were, indeed, on our way to Etchmiadzin and this young Armenian priest’s words would prove to be especially prophetic a decade later.
But the challenge today is for Armenians in Armenia and throughout the Diaspora to work together to ensure that Armenia realizes the true fruits of independence by evolving as a truly democratic state living under the rule of law, providing its people with economic prosperity and security, and pursuing an enlightened foreign policy that maximizes Armenia’s great potential to be a cultural, economic, commercial, scientific and democratic center in the South Caucasus and as a regional bridge between the North and South and the East and West.
Most importantly, while the realization of an independent Armenia is an impressive achievement, the current challenge lies in determining what type of country Armenia will become. And that, my friends, is the key question facing the Armenians of Armenia and the Armenians of the Diaspora. We can no longer afford to ignore the shortcomings, nor can we blindly accept some of the more troubling trends in today’s Armenia,
While Armenia has made important progress, particularly in terms of economic reform and marketization, the absence of a long-term solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict serves to only constrain economic growth, restricts efforts to improve regional security, harms normal relations with its neighbors and impedes integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions. Domestically, and faced with an ongoing constitutional debate and upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, Armenia now has a window of opportunity to take important — and long overdue ~ steps forward on democratic reform.
On constitutional reform, it is especially important to correct the imbalance of power that defines the country’s political system. Armenian governance is largely characterized by an overly dominant executive branch that needs to govern with much more accountability. The lack of an independent judiciary and an ineffective and overly compliant legislature mandates greater “checks and balances” in Armenia. The current discussion of constitutional amendments should also be brought into the public sphere now, while there is time to have public input and buy-in. The support of the Armenian people is essential if Armenia is able to evolve in a truly democratic manner.
Armenians deserve to have full confidence in their elected leaders. Armenia’s authorities must ensure that parliamentary and presidential elections in 2007 and 2008 are free and fair. The U.S. Government and others are already working toward this goal. The Diaspora should actively underscore this message with the Armenian Government. Armenia’s leaders must govern the country in the national interest, not from self-interest.
Allow me to make a comment here on the Armenian Diaspora. Armenians living in countries which enjoy the fruits of liberty, democracy and the benefits of private market economies have a strong hope, I believe, that Armenia will evolve as a strong and stable democracy endowed with freedom and the rule of law as the hallmarks of the Armenian political system, Armenia, since it became an independent republic in 1991, had set out on this path. But this evolution must be consolidated and attempts, as we have seen in the recent past, to thwart Armenia’s democratic evolution, especially by resorting to extralegal means and violence, must be prevented at all costs. We must ensure that the past incidents of political violence remain only one-time aberrations in the course toward true democracy. We have waited far too long for Armenian independence and any retreat from democracy must neither be tolerated nor excused. These democratic ideals are veal values which Armenians both in Armenia and in the Diaspora hold to be dear. Especially, as Americans, we must be true to our values and must be strong advocates of the consolidation of democracy in Armenia.
Democracy and economic development and reforms go hand in hand. Armenia’s business environment, economic development and foreign investment must be promoted in a more even and transparent manner. Over the past decade, Armenia has achieved remarkable economic growth in spite of being cut off from markets (10.1% GDP growth in 2004, 8% projected growth for 2005), but could do far better in attracting foreign investment. Reforms are necessary in the financial sector and tax administration. The business environment is not conducive to foreign investment due to overregulation, systemic corruption, which is a very serious problem, and the lack of administrative courts to protect investors — these are all disincentives to sustained growth and development.
Concerning the Diaspora’s role in investment in Armenia and despite the structural problems, several Diaspora investors are now active in Armenia and appear to be turning a profit (most notably in the IT, tourism and export sectors). However, most of the outside investments in Armenia axe coming from Armenians in Russia, who know how to “work the system”. The Armenian Diaspora in Russia has a very important role to play in Armenia, including the prospects of Armenians there eventually returning to Armenia. However, much more needs to be done to encourage and facilitate investment from other Armenians in the Diaspora who live in the countries of Europe, the United States, Latin America and the Middle East. Business in Armenia requires on-the-ground attention and a considerable investment of time. The U.S. Government encourages smart U.S. investments that will bring American know-how and
business standards to Armenia. It is important to inculcate these values and standards in Armenia. Let us not forget that Armenia was once considered to be the Silicon Valley of the Soviet Union, providing advanced avionics for Soviet aircraft and supercomputers. With literacy rate of 98+6%f is there any question that Armenia’s highly educated population could not aspire to play a comparable role now in the region?
However, to accomplish this, the rule of law and anti-corruption policies need to be more vigorously pursued. More specifically, Armenia all too often demonstrates a rule of law that is more a “law of rulers.” An anti-corruption strategy exists, but it has no teeth; it must be unambiguously supported by Armenia’s current and future political leadership and it needs strong enforcement provisions- The international community — including the Diaspora – can help by insisting on the implementation of a meaningful and sustained anti-corruption strategy.
The economic and social situation in Armenia has, unfortunately, been characterized by the emigration of human capital-people who are seeking better opportunities elsewhere. Unfortunately, one of Armenia’s most important exports has been its people. This is particularly troubling given the small size of Armenia. With a population of less than three million, Armenia can ill afford to lose its “best and brightest,” Foreign direct investment, trade, commerce and economic development will all be enhanced with progress in one area: a negotiated settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Indeed, borders can be opened, blockades lifted and the long journey toward the reconciliation of all peoples and countries of the region can move forward.
Further, Armenia must look at current trends in the region. Russia will continue to seek deeper ties with the West and beyond. Turkey is looking westward, seeking to be part of the European Community, while strengthening its ties in the Middle East and Central Asia and improving its relationship with the United States. Georgia and Azerbaijan are actively pursuing stronger relations with the West.
Armenia’s relations with the United States are very important and involve interaction on issues such as non-proliferation and border security, international narcotics, money laundering and the trafficking in persons, and the development of democratic institutions and sustainable economic growth. Washington appreciates Armenia’s support in Iraq and that both countries are working together in a peacekeeping battalion.
Iran’s future direction remains problematic, but it is a major regional player. Increasingly, change in Iran is not a question of if, but of when. Iran’s policies will have important implications for Armenia. While Armenia’s relations with Russia will remain very important, Armenia must avoid becoming over-dependent on Russia.
Thus, the promise for Armenia’s security and prosperity rests with following the major trends toward regional and international integration. Armenia can no longer risk being “the odd man out”. Indeed; Armenia should rediscover and reaffirm its historic role as a bridge between the North and South, and the East and West.
Armenians recognize that open borders with its neighbors will bring peace and prosperity. The government of Armenia should continue efforts that will benefit the country in the long-term: Namely, serious efforts within the OSCE Minsk Group process on Nagorno-Karabakh and work toward establishment of full diplomatic relations with Turkey should remain top priorities. The Diaspora should strongly discourage the false idea that time is on Armenia’s side.
Every year without full relations with neighbors comes with huge opportunity costs for Armenia. For example, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline’s most economically commercial routing would have been through Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey will benefit from this energy-related commercial linkage. Despite Azerbaijan’s current internal political difficulties, its economic and military potential will only grow in the years ahead. Rhetorically, this was underscored by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev in June, 2005, who boasted of his country’s military muscle at a rally of the ruling party in the capital of Baku: “Azerbaijan has recently got the upper hand in negotiations with Armenia over the resolution, of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Military and economic potential are on our side. We will get our lands back/’ Aliev said. While this militant posturing does little to help the situation, it does reveal the fact that Armenia’s current military advantage is only temporary, and should not be taken for granted.
Despite the rhetoric and looking ahead to the period beyond Azerbaijan’s upcoming parliamentary elections, Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the help of the international community, must make every effort to resolve the Nagorno-Karabagh issue in a timely and comprehensive manner. Let me make clear that the period ahead is the time for diplomacy. And while there is now a window of opportunity, that window will not remain open for too long.
In 1999 and in my current capacity as the Director of the Baker Institute at Rice University we conducted a conflict resolution mission and flew to Baku and to Yerevan to help facilitate the negotiations between the parties on the issue of Nagorno-Karabagh. We were received at the highest levels in both countries and did what we could to move the process forward. I was heartened later in 2001 by the high level involvement of President George W. Bush, and then Secretary of State Colin Powell and the State Department team in urging the parties to move forward. A unique opportunity with the highest level of United States involvement to achieve a peaceful settlement was missed by the Azeri and Armenian leadership; I am convinced that a negotiated settlement is still possible. But it will take strong political will on the part of the leadership of the parties directly involved and creative and active diplomacy on the part of the OSCE members, especially the United States, France and Russia, There are different approaches which have been discussed and put on the table for discussion and there is reason to believe that, when negotiations resume, a focused effort to narrow the differences on some of the key issues can help the parties reach a resolution both sides can support and agree upon.
At the same time, there must be resort by both sides to Public Diplomacy so that public opinion in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, can begin to better understand the merits of a negotiated settlement and the benefits that both the Armenian and Azeri people will enjoy from the peaceful resolution of this dispute. This means that both governments in Yerevan and Baku must make public gestures and statements that ameliorate the atmosphere so that the negotiating process
Obtains the support of the people of both countries. Such an approach would be an important confidence building measure.
What concerns me the most now is that it has been over a decade since the Nagorno-Karabagh ceasefire; and failed efforts to find a negotiated settlement are resulting in the hardening of political attitudes amongst certain domestic constituencies in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. It would indeed be a tragedy if the willingness expressed by the leaders of both Armenia and Azerbaijan to make a lasting peace coupled with the progress made in recent years during negotiations at different levels should all falter. Both sides must take steps now to confront those groups, both in Armenia and Azerbaijan that have vested interests in the status quo. Without a determined effort of public diplomacy, the entrenched hard-line posturing on all sides could become one of the most serious obstacles to peace.
Even if there is no outbreak of fighting in the near term, the absence of an agreement will have a major negative effect posing an obstacle to the political economic and social development and progress of both Armenia and Azerbaijan and can lead to regional instability in the South Caucasus. But again, it is not just the peace process itself that is the sole challenge. The need to “sell” and secure any peace deal is an equally difficult challenge for both sides.
Looming large in the background of this overall situation is the strategic importance of Armenian-Turkish relations. I am an advocate of reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia and between the Turkish and Armenian people. Armenia cannot obtain its full potential without full and normal diplomatic relations with Turkey, and the Armenian government has called for that. And Turkey, likewise, can enhance significantly its international standing and foreign policy goals, e.g., with the EU, by the establishment of full and normal relations with Armenia.
Two major issues impede the establishment of such relations and reconciliation; the lack of a negotiated agreement and comprehensive settlement of the Nagorno-Karabagh issue, and the issue of the Armenian genocide+ What needs to be done, in my view, is for all parties to engage on these issues concomitantly.
First, as I mentioned earlier, is the need to engage in discussions and negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan seeking a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabagh issue. And second is to pick up on the two public proposals—one Turkish and one Armenian—by Prime Minister Erdogan in his letter to President Kocharian for the creation of a joint commission to address the history of the Turks and Armenians, and President Kocharian’s proposal for an intergovernmental commission to meet and discuss all outstanding issues between the two countries with the aim of resolving them. Let that discussion begin now.
My friends, it is, as I said, the time for diplomacy and dialogue. Let us work to encourage the leaders in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey to take the path of statesmanship with the strong support of the international community and the Armenian Diaspora. The stakes are too high to do anything less. Our vision for a truly democratic and prosperous Armenia living in peace and security with all of its neighbors demands nothing less.
Thank you. |
Akgün Medya